These are just snapshots of the Monkey's Market Minute daily newsletter. Subscribe to TFM on GiveSendBro or Subscribestar to access the entire content.
Disclaimer: Never take investment advice from strangers on the internet, especially monkeys.
October 10th, 2022
The FED, the CPI, and the Bond Market: This is the main event in the markets right now. Firstly, after the jobs report from last week showed that unemployment fell rather than rose, the markets are bracing for another rate hike, and if the CPI comes in “higher than expected” the rate hike could be “aggressive”, such as another 0.75%, which would push the federal funds rate to 4%, which would push the 10-year bond yield to something like 4.5% to 5%, which would further exacerbate the “strong dollar” which is crushing international markets that trade in dollars, and risk causing the bond market to crash and bankrupt the government. […]
October 11th, 2022
This move by the UK shows that central banks are trying to pretend they’re still planning on being tough on inflation and aren’t pivoting, even as their bond market crashes. The UK seems to be the testing ground for a lot of bad ideas, so I think the FED will be paying very close attention to how the UK bond market does. If the Bank of England (BOE) has to pivot again to keep the bond market from collapsing again, and can’t pretend to fight inflation anymore, then consider that a teaser trailer for the rest of the western world. […]
October 12th, 2022
It all started when the Bank of England told the funds and firms that they had three days to sell everything. The BOE wants to end its “temporary” intervention and get back to tightening rates and fighting inflation, so they’re telling everyone to dump their bonds. Well, what do you think happened? […]
October 13th, 2022
The CPI doesn’t matter much. What matters is what happens on Friday in the UK. The Bank of England is playing chicken with the bond market. The yield was 4.6% earlier today but is currently at 4.4% The plan seems to be to just keep raising rates until the financial system well and truly breaks. Just to let you know, inflation will not come down. The central banks are simply creating a worse situation so that the people ACCEPT inflation as the lesser evil and don’t blame the politicians for it. It will be like how people who got violently ill from the COVID vaccine or watched loved ones die but coped and said that it would have been worse if they hadn’t gotten vaccinated . . . it’s that but with inflation. […]
October 14th, 2022
The CPI was higher than expected causing markets to sell off, but then the tanking market triggered a short squeeze, causing markets to shoot higher and GAIN on the day. This is yet another reason why you don’t try to time the market. However, I wouldn’t expect this short squeeze to last very long. All the gains will probably reverse as soon as tomorrow. There is nothing bullish about what’s going on. […]
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