Monkey’s Market Minute w/c October 24th, 2022

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October 24th, 2022

With major economies like Japan and China dumping their US dollar and bond reserves to prop up their currencies, it’s creating “illiquidity” in the US bond market. When you hear about a “lack of liquidity” in any market, just mentally add “… at the current price” to the end of it and it will make sense. There is a lot more supply and less demand and the western central banks don’t like that. It’s also worth noting that the FED has swap lines with Europe, but not Asia. This means that European central banks work out deals under the table, whereas Asia has to play their hand face up where everyone can see what they’re doing. Case in point, the Bank of Switzerland used swap lines to borrow $11B from the FED. This was all under the table via swap lines. Japan and China don’t have the privileges of Europe, so they have to sell their dollars/bonds on the open market. […]

October 25th, 2022

 Regarding what Biden’s plan is as the midterms quickly approach. I think the plan is to escalate the war with Russia. Maybe Biden is hoping that if there is an attack America will rally to Biden and the Democrats just like how after 9-11 everyone rallied around George W Bush. If you’re old like me, you might remember that George W Bush came off of a disputed election in 2000, and then the 2001 the collapse of the dot com bubble, and he was deeply unpopular, but then after 9-11, everyone put their differences aside for a couple of weeks. I think THAT is the plan, and God help us all if it is. […]

October 26th, 2022

Or, maybe I was right the first time and it’s all a massive short squeeze caused by overly shorted positions bouncing back due to the nature of option-covering, and the rally will reverse within a couple of days as volume from the options dealers dries up. […]

October 27th, 2022

My take on all of this euphoria over a 0.50% rate hike rather than a 0.75% rate hike is a massive eye-roll. Inflation is 8% and going up. Rates are at 3.25%. The difference between 3.75% and 4% when inflation is 8% is precisely nothing. Is this a pivot? A pivot from what? From pretending to fight inflation to pretending to fight inflation even less? […]

October 28th, 2022

Everyone is pouring back into cash and bonds because if the stock market isn’t rallying, then it’s time to panic, sell everything, and run back to cash and bonds I guess. However it’s telling that today, the US had its 7-year bond auction, and it wasn’t as “stellar” as the 5Y auction the other day. People are only interested in very short-term bonds. […]

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