Monkey’s Market Minute w/c October 3rd, 2022

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October 3rd, 2022

Natural gas has nearly regained all of its Hurricane Ian losses, which is really fast, but not too surprising given the extreme international demand for natural gas. Even if domestic demand slips due to Hurricane Ian, the need for exports is functionally unlimited. Natural gas will likely ride the wave up with oil this week. […]

October 4th 2022

In propaganda news: Zero Hedge posted an article written by Reuters highlighting how energy investors fled the market during September, pointing to “an imminent recession that would cut petroleum consumption”, so literally “muh recession, muh demand destruction” while OPEC is cutting production this week. Also, Goldman Sachs defended Credit Suisse, saying that the fear is unwarranted, attempting to calm down investors of a financial crisis. […]

October 5th 2022

There was a surprise crude DRAW this week, despite a 6.2M SPR dump, there was a draw of 1.77M barrels, which means absent the SPR, there would be a draw of 7.9M barrels. Some of the demand was probably related to people fleeing for their lives from Hurricane Ian, increasing demand, so I wouldn’t read too much into this week’s crude draw as anything more than an outlier. […]

October 6th 2022

 As evidence of my hypothesis that the FED will continue to raise rates, but at a less aggressive pace (i.e. 0.25% – 0.50%) I will point to Australia and New Zealand raising rates today, but at a LOWER than expected rate of only 0.25% and 0.50% respectively. […]

October 7th 2022

Tomorrow (Friday) the jobs report comes out and is likely to be strong, and next week’s CPI is likely to be elevated too, which will re-ignite the normie thesis of the FED being aggressive and crashing the economy with “aggressive” rate hikes, and  . . . you guessed it, “muh recession, muh demand destruction!”. […]

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